FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 82

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

356.58 – 364.86

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

286 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 85.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 659.6 ±8.7

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 89.97Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 149.92Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 116.69Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 541.3 ±9.8

5843Flurb

Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 108.22Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

894The Power Chargers

Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 81.01Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 175.63Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 910, 2960, 8280

/ 100 compat

Projected

356.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 910, 2960, 8280

Auto

65.4 19%

Teleop

199.2 57%

Endgame

83.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5843, 894, 33

/ 100 compat

Projected

364.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5843, 894, 33

Auto

72.8 20%

Teleop

190.7 53%

Endgame

97.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.89 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score356.6pts

Blue projected score364.9pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.3
Score range: 294–428
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 551 vs event baseline 349.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

659.6Season APEX541.3

65.4Auto72.8

199.2Teleop190.7

83.8Endgame97.7

134Consistency152

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	57
teleop	129	144
endgame	136	49
foul	0	15
total	286	265

Result

Final score

286 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 85.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.