FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

499.99 – 364.05

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

488 – 365

Prediction correct · off by 6.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 725.6 ±8.7

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 151.52Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2137The Oxford RoboCats

Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 199.6Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 148.87Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 602.5 ±9.3

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 155.61Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 136.68Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4810I AM Robot

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 71.76Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 70, 2137, 2337

/ 100 compat

Projected

500 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 70, 2137, 2337

Auto

93.5 19%

Teleop

287.8 58%

Endgame

117.5 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 50%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5712, 8612, 4810

/ 100 compat

Projected

364.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5712, 8612, 4810

Auto

73.4 20%

Teleop

204.6 56%

Endgame

86.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 50%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.91 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score500pts

Blue projected score364.1pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 50%, blue 43%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 135.9
Score range: 301–563
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 853 vs event baseline 348.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

725.6Season APEX602.5

93.5Auto73.4

287.8Teleop204.6

117.5Endgame86

168Consistency154

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	35
teleop	272	220
endgame	117	110
foul	0	0
total	488	365

Result

Final score

488 – 365

Prediction correct · off by 6.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.