FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

270.88 – 261.24

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

311 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 468 ±9.8

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 25.04Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 141.79Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 104.05Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.3 ±10.4

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 130.57Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8397Astrobots

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 97.73Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 32.94Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1711, 68, 5229

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1711, 68, 5229

Auto

51.2 19%

Teleop

141.1 52%

Endgame

81.3 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1481, 8397, 1718

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1481, 8397, 1718

Auto

43.8 17%

Teleop

150.1 58%

Endgame

62.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score270.9pts

Blue projected score261.2pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.6
Score range: 198–334
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 504 vs event baseline 350.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

468Season APEX385.3

51.2Auto43.8

141.1Teleop150.1

81.3Endgame62.7

128Consistency174

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	47
teleop	170	136
endgame	104	5
foul	0	5
total	311	193

Result

Final score

311 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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