FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

466.71 – 258.72

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

464 – 319

Prediction correct · off by 31.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 703.7 ±9.3

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 117.55Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 164.3Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 184.86Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.3 ±10.4

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 122.55Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 50.73Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3452GreengineerZ

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 85.44Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4392, 4391, 7166

/ 100 compat

Projected

466.7 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4392, 4391, 7166

Auto

99.1 22%

Teleop

218.1 47%

Endgame

143.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7056, 3618, 3452

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7056, 3618, 3452

Auto

45.0 18%

Teleop

138.9 54%

Endgame

71.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.04 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score466.7pts

Blue projected score258.7pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 78%

Supercharged bonusred 46%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 208
Score range: 196–530
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 783 vs event baseline 349.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

703.7Season APEX374.3

99.1Auto45

218.1Teleop138.9

143.4Endgame71.3

141Consistency157

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	30
teleop	249	175
endgame	141	79
foul	0	35
total	464	319

Result

Final score

464 – 319

Prediction correct · off by 31.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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