FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

334.8 – 335.11

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

251 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 46.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 524.2 ±9.8

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 92.39Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6637BetaWolves

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 71.03Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 171.38Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 558.3 ±9.3

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 99.44Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 160.1Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 75.57Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3322, 6637, 5086

/ 100 compat

Projected

334.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3322, 6637, 5086

Auto

61.7 19%

Teleop

195.7 60%

Endgame

71.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 818, 8373, 288

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 818, 8373, 288

Auto

61.5 19%

Teleop

166.4 51%

Endgame

100.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.11 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score334.8pts

Blue projected score335.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.3
Score range: 272–398
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 596 vs event baseline 350.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

524.2Season APEX558.3

61.7Auto61.5

195.7Teleop166.4

71.2Endgame100.8

177Consistency179

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	57
teleop	145	204
endgame	75	84
foul	0	0
total	251	345

Result

Final score

251 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 46.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.