FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

341 – 265.78

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

357 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 467.8 ±9.8

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 95.13Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5066Singularity

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 165.72Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7054SC Sailors

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 80.15Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 500 ±9.3

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 30.11Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 79.03Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 156.64Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 123, 5066, 7054

/ 100 compat

Projected

341 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 123, 5066, 7054

Auto

54.5 16%

Teleop

196.8 58%

Endgame

90.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4956, 4967, 2851

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4956, 4967, 2851

Auto

54.1 20%

Teleop

159.6 60%

Endgame

51.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.43 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score341pts

Blue projected score265.8pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.2
Score range: 203–404
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 659 vs event baseline 350.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

467.8Season APEX500

54.5Auto54.1

196.8Teleop159.6

90.2Endgame51.6

176Consistency168

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	62
teleop	184	152
endgame	100	68
foul	0	20
total	357	302

Result

Final score

357 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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