Qualification · Qualification 76
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
382.52 – 365.6
55%45%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
384 – 394
Prediction missed · off by 14.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 674.9 ±9.3
Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 155.66Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 152.61Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 74.25Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 537.6 ±9.8
Season APEX 154.4Event APEX 122.41Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 104.35Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 138.84Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5712, 6152, 7188
72
/ 100 compatProjected
382.5 pts
~2.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5712, 6152, 7188
Auto
55.7 15%
Teleop
233.4 61%
Endgame
92.7 24%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 75%
Supercharged: 47%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5675, 4779, 548
70
/ 100 compatProjected
365.6 pts
~2.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5675, 4779, 548
Auto
60.5 17%
Teleop
187.0 52%
Endgame
115.3 32%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 75%
Supercharged: 47%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.34 · Blue 2.02
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score382.5pts
Blue projected score365.6pts
Red win probability55%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 75%, blue 70%
Supercharged bonusred 47%, blue 41%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 16.9
- Score range
- 303–446
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
674.9Season APEX537.6
55.7Auto60.5
233.4Teleop187
92.7Endgame115.3
179Consistency146
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 56 | 79 |
| teleop | 212 | 257 |
| endgame | 116 | 58 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 384 | 394 |
Result
Final score
384 – 394
Prediction missed · off by 14.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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