FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

357.25 – 286.56

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

395 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 75.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 619.9 ±9.3

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 127.53Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 144.72Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 85Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 404.7 ±10.4

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 41.3Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5843Flurb

Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 118.57Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 126.69Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1481, 2337, 910

/ 100 compat

Projected

357.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1481, 2337, 910

Auto

68.4 19%

Teleop

204.2 57%

Endgame

87.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1718, 5843, 4392

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1718, 5843, 4392

Auto

65.2 23%

Teleop

148.4 52%

Endgame

69.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.47 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score357.3pts

Blue projected score286.6pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.7
Score range: 224–420
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 569 vs event baseline 350.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

619.9Season APEX404.7

68.4Auto65.2

204.2Teleop148.4

87.4Endgame69.2

159Consistency173

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	52
teleop	213	114
endgame	128	8
foul	15	0
total	395	174

Result

Final score

395 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 75.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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