Qualification · Qualification 74
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
346.95 – 298.79
65%35%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
291 – 331
Prediction missed · off by 44.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 524.8 ±9.8
Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 180.2Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 91.17Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 75.58Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 477.4 ±9.8
Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 136.78Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 68.98Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 93.03Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 33, 3452, 6637
68
/ 100 compatProjected
347 pts
~2.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 33, 3452, 6637
Auto
55.4 16%
Teleop
194.4 58%
Endgame
87.1 26%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 77%
Supercharged: 33%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 68, 4810, 8397
65
/ 100 compatProjected
298.8 pts
~1.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 68, 4810, 8397
Auto
61.8 21%
Teleop
141.9 49%
Endgame
85.8 30%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 77%
Supercharged: 33%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.41 · Blue 1.91
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score347pts
Blue projected score298.8pts
Red win probability65%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 77%, blue 78%
Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 40%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 48.2
- Score range
- 236–410
- Upset likelihood
- 35%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
524.8Season APEX477.4
55.4Auto61.8
194.4Teleop141.9
87.1Endgame85.8
160Consistency163
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 102 | 51 |
| teleop | 156 | 154 |
| endgame | 28 | 126 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 291 | 331 |
Result
Final score
291 – 331
Prediction missed · off by 44.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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