Qualification · Qualification 73
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
234.9 – 211.01
57%43%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
276 – 209
Prediction correct · off by 21.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 470.2 ±9.8
Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 132.02Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 76.34Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 26.54Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.7 ±10.4
Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 54.07Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 83.66Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 73.28Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8612, 7054, 4956
54
/ 100 compatProjected
234.9 pts
~2.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8612, 7054, 4956
Auto
47.6 20%
Teleop
147.1 62%
Endgame
43.5 18%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 76%
Supercharged: 28%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3618, 894, 288
53
/ 100 compatProjected
211 pts
~1.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3618, 894, 288
Auto
32.6 16%
Teleop
107.3 52%
Endgame
67.2 32%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 76%
Supercharged: 28%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.2 · Blue 1.84
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score234.9pts
Blue projected score211pts
Red win probability57%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 76%, blue 70%
Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 26%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 23.9
- Score range
- 147–299
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
470.2Season APEX359.7
47.6Auto32.6
147.1Teleop107.3
43.5Endgame67.2
159Consistency167
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 62 | 38 |
| teleop | 190 | 90 |
| endgame | 24 | 66 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 276 | 209 |
Result
Final score
276 – 209
Prediction correct · off by 21.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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