FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

506.86 – 407.53

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

422 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 94.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 783.3 ±8.7

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 181.2Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 169.15Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 156.51Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 583 ±9.3

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 160.38Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 145.56Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 101.59Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5086, 4391, 2960

/ 100 compat

Projected

506.9 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5086, 4391, 2960

Auto

100.1 20%

Teleop

268.9 54%

Endgame

132.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 51%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 70, 548, 3322

/ 100 compat

Projected

407.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 70, 548, 3322

Auto

56.5 14%

Teleop

225.4 56%

Endgame

123.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 51%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.8 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score506.9pts

Blue projected score407.5pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 51%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.3
Score range: 345–570
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 725 vs event baseline 352.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

783.3Season APEX583

100.1Auto56.5

268.9Teleop225.4

132.9Endgame123.6

149Consistency145

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	62
teleop	221	175
endgame	153	66
foul	5	0
total	422	303

Result

Final score

422 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 94.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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