FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

315.09 – 325.38

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

188 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 104.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 424.7 ±9.8

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 110.18Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4779RoboSapiens

Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 114.06Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 90.85Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 511.1 ±9.3

5066Singularity

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 171.95Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 121.61Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 31.82Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5229, 4779, 4967

/ 100 compat

Projected

315.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5229, 4779, 4967

Auto

58.1 19%

Teleop

175.4 56%

Endgame

79.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5066, 8280, 1711

/ 100 compat

Projected

325.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5066, 8280, 1711

Auto

58.1 18%

Teleop

186.5 58%

Endgame

77.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.02 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score315.1pts

Blue projected score325.4pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.3
Score range: 251–389
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 431 vs event baseline 353.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

424.7Season APEX511.1

58.1Auto58.1

175.4Teleop186.5

79.8Endgame77.7

154Consistency158

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	38
teleop	107	168
endgame	49	37
foul	0	0
total	188	243

Result

Final score

188 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 104.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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