FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

186.18 – 163.13

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

347 – 406

Prediction missed · off by 201.8 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 730.7 ±8.7

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX -Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX -Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 77.43Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 490 ±9.8

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX -Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX -Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8397Astrobots

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX -Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4391, 2337, 818

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4391, 2337, 818

Auto

44.6 24%

Teleop

104.4 56%

Endgame

37.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5229, 548, 8397

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5229, 548, 8397

Auto

48.9 30%

Teleop

81.6 50%

Endgame

32.6 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.21 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score186.2pts

Blue projected score163.1pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.1
Score range: 104–245
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 753 vs event baseline 326.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

730.7Season APEX490

12Auto-

50Teleop-

15.4Endgame-

0Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	119	62
teleop	167	217
endgame	61	127
foul	0	0
total	347	406

Result

Final score

347 – 406

Prediction missed · off by 201.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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