FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

348.15 – 275.93

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

437 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 666.2 ±9.3

6152Robo-Falcons

Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 142.12Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 176.83Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 29.2Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 445.2 ±9.8

894The Power Chargers

Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 83.11Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 91.33Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 101.49Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6152, 7166, 1718

/ 100 compat

Projected

348.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6152, 7166, 1718

Auto

73.1 21%

Teleop

193.9 56%

Endgame

79.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 894, 123, 818

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 894, 123, 818

Auto

69.3 25%

Teleop

135.4 50%

Endgame

68.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.45 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score348.2pts

Blue projected score275.9pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.2
Score range: 212–412
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 710 vs event baseline 353.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

666.2Season APEX445.2

73.1Auto69.3

193.9Teleop135.4

79.6Endgame68.3

176Consistency185

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	120	67
teleop	214	134
endgame	103	72
foul	0	0
total	437	273

Result

Final score

437 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.