FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

286.53 – 410.02

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

354 – 493

Prediction correct · off by 75.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 479.3 ±9.8

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 172.59Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7054SC Sailors

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 65.38Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 48.56Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 734.2 ±8.7

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 136.88Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 151Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 122.14Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 33, 7054, 3618

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 33, 7054, 3618

Auto

42.7 15%

Teleop

148.0 52%

Endgame

92.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 548, 2960, 8612

/ 100 compat

Projected

410 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 548, 2960, 8612

Auto

85.5 21%

Teleop

225.3 55%

Endgame

96.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.41 · Blue 2.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score286.5pts

Blue projected score410pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 43%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -123.5
Score range: 224–473
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 847 vs event baseline 352.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

479.3Season APEX734.2

42.7Auto85.5

148Teleop225.3

92.5Endgame96.9

186Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	89
teleop	237	303
endgame	91	96
foul	0	5
total	354	493

Result

Final score

354 – 493

Prediction correct · off by 75.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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