FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

506.52 – 358.61

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

360 – 393

Prediction missed · off by 90.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 624.3 ±9.3

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 172.24Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 195.33Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 138.95Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 517.2 ±9.8

8397Astrobots

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 89.21Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2137The Oxford RoboCats

Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 199.66Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 69.74Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8373, 5086, 1481

/ 100 compat

Projected

506.5 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8373, 5086, 1481

Auto

51.9 10%

Teleop

308.2 61%

Endgame

144.8 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 50%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8397, 2137, 288

/ 100 compat

Projected

358.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8397, 2137, 288

Auto

72.1 21%

Teleop

176.3 51%

Endgame

100.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 50%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.01 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score506.5pts

Blue projected score358.6pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 50%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147.9
Score range: 296–570
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 753 vs event baseline 352.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

624.3Season APEX517.2

51.9Auto72.1

308.2Teleop176.3

144.8Endgame100.4

157Consistency189

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	103	74
teleop	141	227
endgame	116	92
foul	0	0
total	360	393

Result

Final score

360 – 393

Prediction missed · off by 90.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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