FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

284.17 – 340.56

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

363 – 331

Prediction missed · off by 44.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 500.5 ±9.8

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 23.03Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 152.95Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5675WiredCats

Season APEX 154.4Event APEX 108.19Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410.4 ±10.4

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 127.84Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 111.38Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 101.34Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1711, 2851, 5675

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1711, 2851, 5675

Auto

42.8 15%

Teleop

162.7 58%

Endgame

76.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4392, 5229, 3322

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4392, 5229, 3322

Auto

51.5 15%

Teleop

185.2 55%

Endgame

99.9 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.75 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score284.2pts

Blue projected score340.6pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 80%

Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.4
Score range: 221–404
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 694 vs event baseline 352.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

500.5Season APEX410.4

42.8Auto51.5

162.7Teleop185.2

76.7Endgame99.9

147Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	54
teleop	181	172
endgame	86	105
foul	0	0
total	363	331

Result

Final score

363 – 331

Prediction missed · off by 44.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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