FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

395.52 – 366.18

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

561 – 381

Prediction correct · off by 90.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 625 ±9.3

3452GreengineerZ

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 76.24Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 158.84Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5066Singularity

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 160.44Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 458.9 ±9.8

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 156.27Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4779RoboSapiens

Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 119.6Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 90.31Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3452, 7166, 5066

/ 100 compat

Projected

395.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3452, 7166, 5066

Auto

95.2 24%

Teleop

186.5 48%

Endgame

108.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 70, 4779, 123

/ 100 compat

Projected

366.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 70, 4779, 123

Auto

71.5 20%

Teleop

195.4 54%

Endgame

98.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.28 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score395.5pts

Blue projected score366.2pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.3
Score range: 303–459
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 942 vs event baseline 350.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

625Season APEX458.9

95.2Auto71.5

186.5Teleop195.4

108.1Endgame98

159Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	48
teleop	335	206
endgame	146	112
foul	5	15
total	561	381

Result

Final score

561 – 381

Prediction correct · off by 90.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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