Qualification · Qualification 63
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
369.16 – 293.99
72%28%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
405 – 391
Prediction correct · off by 66.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 563.2 ±9.3
Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 142.79Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 105.97Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 120.4Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 584.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 61.53Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 68.37Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 164.09Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 68, 5843, 8280
71
/ 100 compatProjected
369.2 pts
~2.5 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 68, 5843, 8280
Auto
88.7 24%
Teleop
207.0 57%
Endgame
67.6 19%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 35%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7188, 6637, 4391
60
/ 100 compatProjected
294 pts
~1.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7188, 6637, 4391
Auto
52.9 18%
Teleop
182.9 63%
Endgame
53.3 18%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 35%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.48 · Blue 1.7
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score369.2pts
Blue projected score294pts
Red win probability72%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 68%, blue 72%
Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 39%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 75.2
- Score range
- 231–432
- Upset likelihood
- 28%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
563.2Season APEX584.1
88.7Auto52.9
207Teleop182.9
67.6Endgame53.3
151Consistency164
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 69 | 71 |
| teleop | 171 | 245 |
| endgame | 160 | 70 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 405 | 391 |
Result
Final score
405 – 391
Prediction correct · off by 66.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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