FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

454.9 – 308.78

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

380 – 351

Prediction correct · off by 58.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 608.9 ±9.3

8397Astrobots

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 93.79Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 208.94Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 152.17Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 607.7 ±9.3

894The Power Chargers

Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 76.2Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 83.47Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 149.11Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8397, 5086, 2337

/ 100 compat

Projected

454.9 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8397, 5086, 2337

Auto

78.6 18%

Teleop

240.4 54%

Endgame

126.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 48%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 894, 910, 5712

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 894, 910, 5712

Auto

47.2 15%

Teleop

160.2 52%

Endgame

99.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 48%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.97 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score454.9pts

Blue projected score308.8pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 48%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 146.1
Score range: 246–518
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 731 vs event baseline 349.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

608.9Season APEX607.7

78.6Auto47.2

240.4Teleop160.2

126.2Endgame99.2

187Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	61
teleop	208	200
endgame	93	90
foul	0	0
total	380	351

Result

Final score

380 – 351

Prediction correct · off by 58.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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