FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

419.13 – 398.68

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

403 – 523

Prediction missed · off by 70.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 575 ±9.3

2137The Oxford RoboCats

Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 207.79Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 96.24Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5675WiredCats

Season APEX 154.4Event APEX 115.1Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 644.1 ±9.3

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 139.36Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 96.35Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 162.97Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2137, 4967, 5675

/ 100 compat

Projected

419.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2137, 4967, 5675

Auto

81.2 19%

Teleop

238.5 57%

Endgame

100.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2960, 5229, 33

/ 100 compat

Projected

398.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2960, 5229, 33

Auto

63.2 16%

Teleop

214.3 55%

Endgame

114.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.23 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score419.1pts

Blue projected score398.7pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 43%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.4
Score range: 336–482
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 926 vs event baseline 347.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

575Season APEX644.1

81.2Auto63.2

238.5Teleop214.3

100.9Endgame114.5

171Consistency133

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	96
teleop	206	305
endgame	115	122
foul	0	0
total	403	523

Result

Final score

403 – 523

Prediction missed · off by 70.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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