FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

253.02 – 345.7

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

390 – 217

Prediction missed · off by 132.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 395.2 ±10.4

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 10.27Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 114.7Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 128.05Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 522.8 ±9.8

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 177.51Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4810I AM Robot

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 81.93Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7054SC Sailors

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 86.26Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1711, 4392, 1481

/ 100 compat

Projected

253 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1711, 4392, 1481

Auto

24.8 10%

Teleop

147.2 59%

Endgame

76.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7166, 4810, 7054

/ 100 compat

Projected

345.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7166, 4810, 7054

Auto

71.4 21%

Teleop

175.2 51%

Endgame

96.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.57 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score253pts

Blue projected score345.7pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -92.7
Score range: 190–409
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 607 vs event baseline 348.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

395.2Season APEX522.8

24.8Auto71.4

147.2Teleop175.2

76.9Endgame96.9

142Consistency156

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	77
teleop	190	58
endgame	118	77
foul	0	5
total	390	217

Result

Final score

390 – 217

Prediction missed · off by 132.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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