Qualification · Qualification 6
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
270.2 – 475.41
7%93%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
330 – 543
Prediction correct · off by 63.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 416.6 ±9.8
Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 105.79Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 57.84Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 106.57Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 744.2 ±8.7
Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 183.52Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 154.61Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 137.28Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8280, 3618, 4779
58
/ 100 compatProjected
270.2 pts
~1.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8280, 3618, 4779
Auto
39.0 15%
Teleop
159.0 61%
Endgame
62.4 24%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 67%
Supercharged: 26%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7166, 8373, 68
82
/ 100 compatProjected
475.4 pts
~3.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7166, 8373, 68
Auto
84.6 18%
Teleop
242.0 51%
Endgame
143.8 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 67%
Supercharged: 26%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.1 · Blue 3.03
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score270.2pts
Blue projected score475.4pts
Red win probability7%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 67%, blue 69%
Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 47%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -205.2
- Score range
- 206–539
- Upset likelihood
- 7%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
416.6Season APEX744.2
39Auto84.6
159Teleop242
62.4Endgame143.8
160Consistency147
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 37 | 96 |
| teleop | 209 | 263 |
| endgame | 84 | 174 |
| foul | 0 | 10 |
| total | 330 | 543 |
Result
Final score
330 – 543
Prediction correct · off by 63.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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