FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

231.98 – 254.61

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

210 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 58.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 447 ±9.8

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 52.59Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 30.99Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 148.4Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 435 ±9.8

6637BetaWolves

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 58.47Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 88.62Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 107.52Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3618, 1718, 548

/ 100 compat

Projected

232 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3618, 1718, 548

Auto

36.2 15%

Teleop

145.6 62%

Endgame

52.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6637, 123, 8280

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6637, 123, 8280

Auto

58.3 24%

Teleop

144.1 59%

Endgame

40.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.79 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score232pts

Blue projected score254.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.6
Score range: 169–318
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 559 vs event baseline 349.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

447Season APEX435

36.2Auto58.3

145.6Teleop144.1

52.2Endgame40.9

208Consistency162

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	94
teleop	79	196
endgame	76	59
foul	0	0
total	210	349

Result

Final score

210 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 58.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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