FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

348.7 – 361.42

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

427 – 509

Prediction correct · off by 112.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 714.4 ±8.7

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 84.09Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 133.51Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6152Robo-Falcons

Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 131.1Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 715.5 ±8.7

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 151.52Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 65.06Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 144.84Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 818, 68, 6152

/ 100 compat

Projected

348.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 818, 68, 6152

Auto

74.9 22%

Teleop

189.3 55%

Endgame

79.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4391, 910, 70

/ 100 compat

Projected

361.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4391, 910, 70

Auto

69.6 19%

Teleop

194.8 54%

Endgame

98.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.04 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score348.7pts

Blue projected score361.4pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 42%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.7
Score range: 286–424
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 936 vs event baseline 347.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

714.4Season APEX715.5

74.9Auto69.6

189.3Teleop194.8

79.7Endgame98.4

200Consistency139

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	106	105
teleop	241	247
endgame	80	157
foul	0	0
total	427	509

Result

Final score

427 – 509

Prediction correct · off by 112.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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