FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

386.03 – 346.39

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

501 – 386

Prediction correct · off by 77.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 611.7 ±9.3

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 135.47Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 100.07Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5066Singularity

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 150.49Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 542.7 ±9.8

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 108.87Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 125.43Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4779RoboSapiens

Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 112.09Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5712, 3322, 5066

/ 100 compat

Projected

386 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5712, 3322, 5066

Auto

56.1 15%

Teleop

219.4 57%

Endgame

106.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7056, 8612, 4779

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7056, 8612, 4779

Auto

70.6 20%

Teleop

200.2 58%

Endgame

76.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.35 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score386pts

Blue projected score346.4pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 78%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 44%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.6
Score range: 284–448
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 887 vs event baseline 345.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

611.7Season APEX542.7

56.1Auto70.6

219.4Teleop200.2

106.1Endgame76.1

178Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	71
teleop	285	222
endgame	145	93
foul	0	0
total	501	386

Result

Final score

501 – 386

Prediction correct · off by 77.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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