FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

258.58 – 387.15

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

282 – 376

Prediction correct · off by 17.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.3 ±9.8

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 11.07Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3452GreengineerZ

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 75.32Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 172.19Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 645.3 ±9.3

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 158.02Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 161.63Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 67.5Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4956, 3452, 8373

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4956, 3452, 8373

Auto

42.9 17%

Teleop

142.4 56%

Endgame

70.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2337, 2851, 7188

/ 100 compat

Projected

387.2 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2337, 2851, 7188

Auto

61.5 16%

Teleop

244.9 64%

Endgame

78.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.47 · Blue 2.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score258.6pts

Blue projected score387.2pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 79%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 45%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -128.6
Score range: 197–449
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 658 vs event baseline 346.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.3Season APEX645.3

42.9Auto61.5

142.4Teleop244.9

70.6Endgame78.2

144Consistency180

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	48
teleop	139	263
endgame	110	65
foul	5	0
total	282	376

Result

Final score

282 – 376

Prediction correct · off by 17.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.