FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

331.78 – 409.36

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

415 – 456

Prediction correct · off by 64.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 529.3 ±9.8

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 103.75Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 158.52Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 69.51Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 544.8 ±9.8

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 91.27Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2137The Oxford RoboCats

Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 211.78Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5843Flurb

Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 106.31Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4392, 33, 288

/ 100 compat

Projected

331.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4392, 33, 288

Auto

51.6 16%

Teleop

159.7 49%

Endgame

114.9 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5229, 2137, 5843

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.4 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5229, 2137, 5843

Auto

73.6 18%

Teleop

235.3 57%

Endgame

101.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.72 · Blue 2.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score331.8pts

Blue projected score409.4pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 46%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77.6
Score range: 270–471
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 871 vs event baseline 344.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

529.3Season APEX544.8

51.6Auto73.6

159.7Teleop235.3

114.9Endgame101.6

178Consistency153

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	124
teleop	184	239
endgame	138	93
foul	15	0
total	415	456

Result

Final score

415 – 456

Prediction correct · off by 64.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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