FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

230.9 – 255.49

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

186 – 276

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 417 ±10.4

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 41.21Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5675WiredCats

Season APEX 154.4Event APEX 118.43Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6637BetaWolves

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 71.26Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 514.3 ±9.8

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 148.44Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7054SC Sailors

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 91.2Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 15.85Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1718, 5675, 6637

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1718, 5675, 6637

Auto

31.9 14%

Teleop

153.9 69%

Endgame

38.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4391, 7054, 1711

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4391, 7054, 1711

Auto

44.1 17%

Teleop

140.2 54%

Endgame

75.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.81 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score230.9pts

Blue projected score255.5pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.6
Score range: 169–317
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 462 vs event baseline 346.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

417Season APEX514.3

31.9Auto44.1

153.9Teleop140.2

38.7Endgame75.4

177Consistency163

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	44
teleop	127	127
endgame	14	100
foul	0	5
total	186	276

Result

Final score

186 – 276

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.