FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

369.69 – 326.95

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

413 – 431

Prediction missed · off by 73.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 551 ±9.8

4779RoboSapiens

Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 101.89Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 133.19Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 134.61Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 570.5 ±9.3

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 199.28Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 77Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 50.67Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4779, 1481, 2960

/ 100 compat

Projected

369.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4779, 1481, 2960

Auto

32.3 9%

Teleop

210.8 59%

Endgame

115.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5086, 123, 910

/ 100 compat

Projected

327 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5086, 123, 910

Auto

78.0 24%

Teleop

158.6 48%

Endgame

93.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.39 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score369.7pts

Blue projected score327pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.7
Score range: 265–432
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 844 vs event baseline 345.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

551Season APEX570.5

32.3Auto78

210.8Teleop158.6

115.8Endgame93.7

106Consistency197

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	107	79
teleop	247	242
endgame	59	105
foul	0	5
total	413	431

Result

Final score

413 – 431

Prediction missed · off by 73.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.