FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

210.12 – 276.8

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

144 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 37.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.7 ±10.4

4810I AM Robot

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 97.85Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 24.15Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

894The Power Chargers

Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 88.12Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 509.8 ±9.8

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 72.48Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3452GreengineerZ

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 72.05Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 132.27Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4810, 4956, 894

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4810, 4956, 894

Auto

35.7 17%

Teleop

128.4 61%

Endgame

45.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 7188, 3452, 68

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7188, 3452, 68

Auto

53.5 19%

Teleop

149.9 54%

Endgame

76.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.65 · Blue 2.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score210.1pts

Blue projected score276.8pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 79%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.7
Score range: 147–340
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 430 vs event baseline 347.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.7Season APEX509.8

35.7Auto53.5

128.4Teleop149.9

45.1Endgame76.2

163Consistency160

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	82
teleop	56	163
endgame	40	26
foul	0	15
total	144	286

Result

Final score

144 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 37.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.