FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

305.86 – 522.05

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

388 – 423

Prediction correct · off by 90.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 568.8 ±8.7

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 96.4Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 93.98Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 115.48Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 765.9 ±8.7

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 175.59Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 151.46Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 195Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4967, 8280, 8612

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4967, 8280, 8612

Auto

61.2 20%

Teleop

180.5 59%

Endgame

65.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2851, 5712, 7166

/ 100 compat

Projected

522.1 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2851, 5712, 7166

Auto

103.5 20%

Teleop

298.6 58%

Endgame

117.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.08 · Blue 3.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score305.9pts

Blue projected score522.1pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 46%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -216.2
Score range: 244–584
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 811 vs event baseline 346.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

568.8Season APEX765.9

61.2Auto103.5

180.5Teleop298.6

65.9Endgame117.2

174Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	122	72
teleop	234	202
endgame	22	134
foul	10	15
total	388	423

Result

Final score

388 – 423

Prediction correct · off by 90.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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