FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

278.91 – 341.52

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

272 – 391

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 423.7 ±10.4

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 116.53Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 63.37Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 99.01Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 617.6 ±9.3

6152Robo-Falcons

Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 130.81Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 151.01Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 59.7Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7056, 288, 3322

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7056, 288, 3322

Auto

50.4 18%

Teleop

142.9 52%

Endgame

81.8 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6152, 2337, 3618

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6152, 2337, 3618

Auto

61.9 18%

Teleop

186.8 55%

Endgame

89.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.75 · Blue 2.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score278.9pts

Blue projected score341.5pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.6
Score range: 217–404
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 663 vs event baseline 346.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

423.7Season APEX617.6

50.4Auto61.9

142.9Teleop186.8

81.8Endgame89.4

173Consistency194

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	75
teleop	140	239
endgame	102	77
foul	0	0
total	272	391

Result

Final score

272 – 391

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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