FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

353.84 – 344.75

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

379 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 32 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 522.2 ±9.8

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 142.99Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4810I AM Robot

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 83.52Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 127.33Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 618.3 ±9.3

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 164.4Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 147.6Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 32.75Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5086, 4810, 7056

/ 100 compat

Projected

353.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5086, 4810, 7056

Auto

58.1 16%

Teleop

186.6 53%

Endgame

108.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 50%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2851, 2960, 1718

/ 100 compat

Projected

344.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2851, 2960, 1718

Auto

67.7 20%

Teleop

213.8 63%

Endgame

56.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 50%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.36 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score353.8pts

Blue projected score344.8pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 50%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.1
Score range: 281–418
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 685 vs event baseline 357.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

522.2Season APEX618.3

58.1Auto67.7

186.6Teleop213.8

108.2Endgame56.8

165Consistency162

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	49
teleop	186	211
endgame	144	46
foul	5	0
total	379	306

Result

Final score

379 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 32 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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