FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

397.71 – 383.03

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

387 – 502

Prediction missed · off by 64.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 669.3 ±8.7

5066Singularity

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 154.73Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 89.08Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 153.9Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 585.6 ±9.3

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 129.45Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5843Flurb

Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 98.17Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 155.41Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5066, 818, 548

/ 100 compat

Projected

397.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5066, 818, 548

Auto

66.1 17%

Teleop

239.0 61%

Endgame

88.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 70, 5843, 8373

/ 100 compat

Projected

383 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 70, 5843, 8373

Auto

53.9 14%

Teleop

211.6 56%

Endgame

111.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.12 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score397.7pts

Blue projected score383pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 47%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.7
Score range: 321–460
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 889 vs event baseline 344.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

669.3Season APEX585.6

66.1Auto53.9

239Teleop211.6

88.8Endgame111.3

222Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	80
teleop	173	308
endgame	117	114
foul	5	0
total	387	502

Result

Final score

387 – 502

Prediction missed · off by 64.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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