FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

314.65 – 242.41

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

237 – 340

Prediction missed · off by 87.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 515.3 ±9.8

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 82.79Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 146.84Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 85.02Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413.1 ±10.4

8397Astrobots

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 92.57Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6637BetaWolves

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 68.18Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 81.66Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7188, 2960, 123

/ 100 compat

Projected

314.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7188, 2960, 123

Auto

48.9 16%

Teleop

168.0 55%

Endgame

90.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8397, 6637, 4392

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8397, 6637, 4392

Auto

63.1 26%

Teleop

135.5 56%

Endgame

43.8 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.44 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score314.7pts

Blue projected score242.4pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.2
Score range: 180–377
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 577 vs event baseline 346.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

515.3Season APEX413.1

48.9Auto63.1

168Teleop135.5

90.5Endgame43.8

150Consistency156

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	34
teleop	127	157
endgame	43	104
foul	0	45
total	237	340

Result

Final score

237 – 340

Prediction missed · off by 87.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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