Qualification · Qualification 46
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
183.88 – 529.49
2%98%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
79 – 496
Prediction correct · off by 69.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 345.9 ±10.4
Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 113.71Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 32.55Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 37.62Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 811.4 ±8.7
Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 163.73Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 150.59Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 215.17Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4779, 1711, 4956
49
/ 100 compatProjected
183.9 pts
~1.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4779, 1711, 4956
Auto
19.8 11%
Teleop
100.3 55%
Endgame
61.3 34%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 72%
Supercharged: 28%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 33, 4391, 2137
90
/ 100 compatProjected
529.5 pts
~3.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 33, 4391, 2137
Auto
97.4 19%
Teleop
316.2 60%
Endgame
112.8 21%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 72%
Supercharged: 28%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.05 · Blue 3.25
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score183.9pts
Blue projected score529.5pts
Red win probability2%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 72%, blue 76%
Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 51%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -345.6
- Score range
- 122–591
- Upset likelihood
- 2%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
345.9Season APEX811.4
19.8Auto97.4
100.3Teleop316.2
61.3Endgame112.8
187Consistency196
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 34 | 92 |
| teleop | 45 | 211 |
| endgame | 0 | 193 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 79 | 496 |
Result
Final score
79 – 496
Prediction correct · off by 69.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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