FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

355.2 – 194.48

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

446 – 314

Prediction correct · off by 105.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 558.8 ±9.3

5066Singularity

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 138.54Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 122.91Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4810I AM Robot

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 93.75Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 430.1 ±9.8

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 77.96Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1718The Fighting Pi

Season APEX 114.8Event APEX 30.58Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 85.94Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5066, 70, 4810

/ 100 compat

Projected

355.2 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5066, 70, 4810

Auto

46.0 13%

Teleop

221.6 63%

Endgame

83.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8280, 1718, 3322

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8280, 1718, 3322

Auto

40.2 21%

Teleop

139.0 72%

Endgame

13.5 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.93 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score355.2pts

Blue projected score194.5pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 160.7
Score range: 132–417
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 760 vs event baseline 345.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

558.8Season APEX430.1

46Auto40.2

221.6Teleop139

83.2Endgame13.5

164Consistency195

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	45
teleop	254	193
endgame	109	71
foul	0	5
total	446	314

Result

Final score

446 – 314

Prediction correct · off by 105.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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