FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

396.92 – 404.29

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

394 – 371

Prediction missed · off by 18.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 628.8 ±9.3

5843Flurb

Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 97.54Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 122.88Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 176.5Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 630.2 ±9.3

6152Robo-Falcons

Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 142.98Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8397Astrobots

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 95.21Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 166.1Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5843, 8612, 2851

/ 100 compat

Projected

396.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5843, 8612, 2851

Auto

83.7 21%

Teleop

237.5 60%

Endgame

73.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6152, 8397, 8373

/ 100 compat

Projected

404.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6152, 8397, 8373

Auto

49.3 13%

Teleop

215.6 55%

Endgame

124.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.15 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score396.9pts

Blue projected score404.3pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 79%

Supercharged bonusred 45%, blue 49%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.4
Score range: 335–466
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 765 vs event baseline 344.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

628.8Season APEX630.2

83.7Auto49.3

237.5Teleop215.6

73.7Endgame124.9

163Consistency172

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	55
teleop	234	204
endgame	76	112
foul	0	0
total	394	371

Result

Final score

394 – 371

Prediction missed · off by 18.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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