FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

379.04 – 321.29

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

369 – 341

Prediction correct · off by 14.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 551.9 ±9.3

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 157.29Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 103.98Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 117.77Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 481.1 ±9.8

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 128.26Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 56.22Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 136.81Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 548, 4967, 7056

/ 100 compat

Projected

379 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 548, 4967, 7056

Auto

44.0 12%

Teleop

219.9 58%

Endgame

117.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1481, 3618, 68

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1481, 3618, 68

Auto

14.0 4%

Teleop

184.1 58%

Endgame

119.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.44 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score379pts

Blue projected score321.3pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.8
Score range: 259–441
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 710 vs event baseline 344.3.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

551.9Season APEX481.1

44Auto14

219.9Teleop184.1

117.3Endgame119.9

181Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	71
teleop	205	198
endgame	102	67
foul	0	5
total	369	341

Result

Final score

369 – 341

Prediction correct · off by 14.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.