FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

360.91 – 391.58

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

307 – 282

Prediction missed · off by 81.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 694.5 ±8.7

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 199.69Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 58.67Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 102.55Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 529 ±9.8

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 170.76Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 86.18Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5675WiredCats

Season APEX 154.4Event APEX 134.64Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7166, 910, 818

/ 100 compat

Projected

360.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7166, 910, 818

Auto

80.5 23%

Teleop

194.6 55%

Endgame

81.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2337, 288, 5675

/ 100 compat

Projected

391.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2337, 288, 5675

Auto

76.7 19%

Teleop

210.2 53%

Endgame

109.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.75 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score360.9pts

Blue projected score391.6pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.7
Score range: 299–454
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 589 vs event baseline 345.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

694.5Season APEX529

80.5Auto76.7

194.6Teleop210.2

81.9Endgame109.2

194Consistency156

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	128	60
teleop	120	104
endgame	59	103
foul	0	15
total	307	282

Result

Final score

307 – 282

Prediction missed · off by 81.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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