FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

204.76 – 232.69

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

427 – 289

Prediction missed · off by 139.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 468.7 ±9.8

7054SC Sailors

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 57.59Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 90.73Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 56.44Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 415.9 ±10.4

4810I AM Robot

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 79.06Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 78.17Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 75.46Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7054, 70, 5229

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7054, 70, 5229

Auto

51.2 25%

Teleop

117.5 58%

Endgame

32.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4810, 4392, 7188

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4810, 4392, 7188

Auto

24.6 10%

Teleop

146.9 62%

Endgame

65.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.97 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score204.8pts

Blue projected score232.7pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.9
Score range: 143–295
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 716 vs event baseline 345.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

468.7Season APEX415.9

51.2Auto24.6

117.5Teleop146.9

32.8Endgame65.8

144Consistency179

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	73
teleop	232	164
endgame	163	52
foul	0	0
total	427	289

Result

Final score

427 – 289

Prediction missed · off by 139.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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