FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

346.68 – 448.21

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

449 – 467

Prediction correct · off by 60.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 614.5 ±9.3

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 102.66Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 154.48Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8397Astrobots

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 89.54Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 750.3 ±8.7

6152Robo-Falcons

Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 132.46Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5066Singularity

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 139.18Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 176.57Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8612, 33, 8397

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8612, 33, 8397

Auto

68.9 20%

Teleop

200.0 59%

Endgame

70.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6152, 5066, 5086

/ 100 compat

Projected

448.2 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6152, 5066, 5086

Auto

77.1 18%

Teleop

229.6 52%

Endgame

131.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.67 · Blue 2.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score346.7pts

Blue projected score448.2pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 51%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -101.5
Score range: 285–510
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 916 vs event baseline 342.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

614.5Season APEX750.3

68.9Auto77.1

200Teleop229.6

70.8Endgame131.6

188Consistency206

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	94	61
teleop	232	287
endgame	123	119
foul	0	0
total	449	467

Result

Final score

449 – 467

Prediction correct · off by 60.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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