FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

299.01 – 359

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

279 – 357

Prediction correct · off by 11 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 409.5 ±10.4

5675WiredCats

Season APEX 154.4Event APEX 119.31Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 90.73Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3452GreengineerZ

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 88.97Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 567.9 ±9.8

894The Power Chargers

Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 78.1Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6152Robo-Falcons

Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 152.99Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 127.91Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5675, 3322, 3452

/ 100 compat

Projected

299 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5675, 3322, 3452

Auto

55.8 19%

Teleop

154.8 52%

Endgame

84.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 894, 6152, 1481

/ 100 compat

Projected

359 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 894, 6152, 1481

Auto

60.1 17%

Teleop

199.3 56%

Endgame

98.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.74 · Blue 2.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score299pts

Blue projected score359pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60
Score range: 235–423
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 636 vs event baseline 357.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

409.5Season APEX567.9

55.8Auto60.1

154.8Teleop199.3

84.9Endgame98

157Consistency165

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	33
teleop	141	217
endgame	58	102
foul	0	5
total	279	357

Result

Final score

279 – 357

Prediction correct · off by 11 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.