FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

337.56 – 383.42

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

235 – 532

Prediction correct · off by 125.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445.1 ±9.8

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 75.68Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 158.8Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 103.08Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 681.7 ±9.3

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 144.67Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 124.62Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 114.13Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3618, 5712, 123

/ 100 compat

Projected

337.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3618, 5712, 123

Auto

57.7 17%

Teleop

182.4 54%

Endgame

95.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2851, 1481, 4391

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2851, 1481, 4391

Auto

63.3 17%

Teleop

239.3 62%

Endgame

80.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.69 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score337.6pts

Blue projected score383.4pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 46%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.9
Score range: 277–444
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 767 vs event baseline 341.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445.1Season APEX681.7

57.7Auto63.3

182.4Teleop239.3

95.8Endgame80.6

181Consistency183

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	59
teleop	87	333
endgame	87	140
foul	0	0
total	235	532

Result

Final score

235 – 532

Prediction correct · off by 125.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.