FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

417.87 – 207.23

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

219 – 232

Prediction missed · off by 111.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552.6 ±9.3

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 190.24Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 105.54Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

894The Power Chargers

Season APEX 139.8Event APEX 122.09Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.3 ±9.8

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 29.25Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 115.13Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 62.85Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8373, 8280, 894

/ 100 compat

Projected

417.9 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8373, 8280, 894

Auto

41.2 10%

Teleop

226.6 56%

Endgame

137.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 1711, 7056, 910

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1711, 7056, 910

Auto

23.2 11%

Teleop

109.6 52%

Endgame

78.7 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.89 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score417.9pts

Blue projected score207.2pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 210.6
Score range: 145–480
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 451 vs event baseline 344.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552.6Season APEX483.3

41.2Auto23.2

226.6Teleop109.6

137.7Endgame78.7

183Consistency165

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	34
teleop	130	132
endgame	42	66
foul	5	0
total	219	232

Result

Final score

219 – 232

Prediction missed · off by 111.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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