FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

309.55 – 425.41

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

275 – 544

Prediction correct · off by 76.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 469.6 ±9.8

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 43.55Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

288The RoboDawgs

Season APEX 127.3Event APEX 82.09Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 183.91Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 685.1 ±9.3

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 119.49Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5675WiredCats

Season APEX 154.4Event APEX 123.83Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 182.09Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4956, 288, 548

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4956, 288, 548

Auto

53.0 17%

Teleop

175.5 56%

Endgame

86.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2960, 5675, 7166

/ 100 compat

Projected

425.4 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2960, 5675, 7166

Auto

96.7 23%

Teleop

241.8 58%

Endgame

79.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.41 · Blue 2.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score309.6pts

Blue projected score425.4pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 45%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -115.9
Score range: 248–487
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 819 vs event baseline 343.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

469.6Season APEX685.1

53Auto96.7

175.5Teleop241.8

86.5Endgame79.4

176Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	82
teleop	155	267
endgame	82	190
foul	0	5
total	275	544

Result

Final score

275 – 544

Prediction correct · off by 76.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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