FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

300.48 – 321.59

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

208 – 399

Prediction correct · off by 84.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 515.8 ±9.8

7054SC Sailors

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 70.05Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 142.33Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6637BetaWolves

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 88.1Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.9 ±9.8

5843Flurb

Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 87.47Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 70.35Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 163.77Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7054, 68, 6637

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7054, 68, 6637

Auto

59.0 20%

Teleop

183.4 62%

Endgame

54.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5843, 3322, 2337

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5843, 3322, 2337

Auto

84.0 26%

Teleop

170.6 53%

Endgame

65.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.94 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score300.5pts

Blue projected score321.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.1
Score range: 238–384
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 607 vs event baseline 344.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

515.8Season APEX526.9

59Auto84

183.4Teleop170.6

54.3Endgame65.4

179Consistency199

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	78
teleop	118	205
endgame	49	111
foul	0	5
total	208	399

Result

Final score

208 – 399

Prediction correct · off by 84.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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