FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

276.03 – 314.96

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

322 – 287

Prediction missed · off by 37 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 587.7 ±9.3

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 103.65Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 83.68Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 88.7Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.4 ±10.4

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 112.02Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 133.61Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3452GreengineerZ

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 69.33Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 818, 7188, 8612

/ 100 compat

Projected

276 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 818, 7188, 8612

Auto

54.6 20%

Teleop

157.0 58%

Endgame

59.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 123, 1481, 3452

/ 100 compat

Projected

315 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 123, 1481, 3452

Auto

61.8 19%

Teleop

175.0 55%

Endgame

83.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.83 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score276pts

Blue projected score315pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.9
Score range: 214–377
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 609 vs event baseline 345.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

587.7Season APEX377.4

54.6Auto61.8

157Teleop175

59.7Endgame83.6

183Consistency157

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	36
teleop	227	131
endgame	43	120
foul	0	0
total	322	287

Result

Final score

322 – 287

Prediction missed · off by 37 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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