Qualification · Qualification 33
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
342.41 – 377.83
39%61%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
373 – 305
Prediction missed · off by 51.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 611.2 ±9.3
Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 57.16Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 72.57Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 212.68Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 608.5 ±9.3
Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 135.83Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 76.26Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 165.74Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 910, 4810, 2137
70
/ 100 compatProjected
342.4 pts
~1.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 910, 4810, 2137
Auto
44.6 13%
Teleop
189.6 56%
Endgame
106.4 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Low variance, consistent output
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 70%
Supercharged: 41%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4391, 3618, 5066
72
/ 100 compatProjected
377.8 pts
~2.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4391, 3618, 5066
Auto
73.2 20%
Teleop
236.6 63%
Endgame
63.2 17%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 70%
Supercharged: 41%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.91 · Blue 2.31
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score342.4pts
Blue projected score377.8pts
Red win probability39%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 70%, blue 71%
Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 36%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -35.4
- Score range
- 280–440
- Upset likelihood
- 39%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
611.2Season APEX608.5
44.6Auto73.2
189.6Teleop236.6
106.4Endgame63.2
225Consistency205
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 74 | 59 |
| teleop | 246 | 163 |
| endgame | 53 | 83 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 373 | 305 |
Result
Final score
373 – 305
Prediction missed · off by 51.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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